Connecticut

Under Construction

Summary:


Senate:


House:

Connecticut has 5 Congressional districts, all now held by Democrats.  The closest contest was in District 5, won by the Democrat Esty with 52% of the vote.  The Democrats will have to defend this seat in 2014, and don't have any opportunities to pick up a seat.

State Government:


News and links:

California

Under Construction

Summary:


Senate:


House:

California is a big state with a whopping 53 Congressional districts.  It is now represented by 38 Democrats and 15 Republicans.

There were 10 close Congressional races in California; that is, the percentage of votes that the victor received was 55% or less.  9 out of those 10 close races were won by Democrats.  In other words, the Democrats have more close districts to defend and there is only 1 district that might move to the Democratic column in 2014 based on margins.  The best district for a Democratic pick up would be the 10th, represented by Denham.

11 districts changed parties in 2013, with 8 moving to the Democratic column.
State Government:

News and links:

Arkansas

Under Construction

Summary:


Senate:

From Politico:  

"Arkansas is one of a handful of Republican-leaning states represented by Democrats (in the Senate) — Louisiana, North Carolina and Alaska are the others — that are critical to the GOP’s chances of flipping the Senate next year. The party needs to net six seats to capture the chamber. But Democrats say history is in their favor, noting that only three of their incumbents have lost in the past decade."

House:

All four Congressional seats in Arkansas are held by Republicans.  While none of these races were extremely close in 2012, these races were not as lopsided as they are in some other states.  The closest contests were in District 1, in which the incumbent, Crawford, received 56% of the vote, and in District 2, in which the incumbent, Griffin, received 55% of the vote.

The District 3 Republican representative, Cotton, is apparently going to attempt to move onto the Senate, but he won his seat by a 60,000 plurality in 2012.  

Therefore, it is not clear if any of these four seats can be successfully contested in the red state of Arkansas. 

State Government:


News and links:

• Added Wednesday, July 31, 2013: "Rep. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) plans to announce a Senate bid next week, challenging incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) in a state that is considered a top pick-up opportunity for Republicans, a source confirmed to POLITICO Wednesday.
  
  
  The freshman congressman, who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, is a star among neoconservatives and could serve as a major counterweight to the more libertarian voices of the Senate, including Sens. Rand Paul and Ted Cruz."
  
  Read more at Politico.
  
  
  Some Senate prognosticators have now moved the Arkansas Senate race from "Safe Democrat" to a toss up.
  
  

  
  

Arizona

Under Construction

Summary:


Senate:


House:

There are nine Congressional districts in Arizona; five now held by Democrats and four now held by Republicans.

Three of the 2012 races were very close and all were won by Democrats.  Two of these three seats were party changes, as these seats were previously held by Republicans. However, the close votes in these districts will present challenges to Democrats in 2014.

The four seats held by Republicans were won by large Republican margins in 2012.  They will probably not be in contest in 2014.

Of the other two seats held by Democrats, one, that of Representative R. Grijalva in District 3, was won by approximately 30,000 votes or 20% and is probably a safe Democratic seat.

In the other Democratic seat, in District 7, the incumbent, Pastor, was running unopposed.

So seats in Arizona are seats that the Democrats will have to defend, with no real chance to pick up any more seats.      

State Government:


News and links:

Alaska

Under Construction

Summary:


Senate:


House:

Alaska has one Congressional seat which is held by a Republican.  The incumbent Republican, Young, was overwhelmingly re-elected in 2012.  This seat is probably not in contest.

State Government:


News and links:

• Added July 18th from the Daily Kos: 

AL-01: State Sen. Trip Pittman says he won't run in the expected special election in AL-01, where a giant field of eight Republicans is eagerly awaiting Rep. Jo Bonner's resignation announcement, planned for next month.

Alabama

Under Construction

Summary:


Senate:


House:

Alabama has 7 Congressional districts.  6 are held by Republicans and 1 by a Democrat.  1 Republican incumbent, Bonner, ran unopposed.  

Based on 2012 results, none of these seats are in contest; that is, the percentage of people voting for the winner is very high in all districts.  

State Government:


News and links:

2014 Starts Now!

From www.123rf.com

I've got to be honest, I'm beat.  

The blogging, the writing, the anxiety, the phoning, the talking, and now the aftermath of the 2012 elections:  I really don't want to think about the 2014 midterm elections for a few weeks yet, but we can't let 2010 happen in 2014.

The Tea Party people are still noisy and active.  Obama and the Democrats still have major issues to deal with, and the Republicans, the Koch Brothers, the ALEC people, and the Tea Party people will still be out there spreading lies, publishing things taken out of context, and will generally be working against the middle, working, and poor classes of this country in favor of the rich guys.

We need to start to looking at local races, at House races, and at Senate 2014 races.  We need to continue to counter  lies, distortions, and propaganda.

My visions for this site include a state by state summary with links to more specific local races and issues.  Yes, many states have seriously gerrymandered districts, thus making it next to impossible for Democrats or people leaning Democrat to get as much representation in Congress or in the state legislatures as they deserve.  But despite this, the Democrats picked up about a dozen seats in the 113th Congress over the 112th Congress, and these gains can be increased by carefully targeting districts that can be moved from the Republican to the Democratic column based on demographics and 2012 returns.

I welcome ideas and inspiration from all as I work out the details of this site.

But 2014 must start now.  There is much work to be done.

In the meantime, I hope that you all have enjoyed the holiday season and I wish you all a very Happy New Year in 2013.

I'm personally pleased that the Fiscal Cliff has been somewhat avoided, but it is time to get back to work.  The Deficit Ceiling Debacle awaits, and as long as the Republicans have so much control in Congress, we will have one crisis after another.  We cannot underestimate how much power the Republicans still have and how that impacts public policy.

(Updated January 2, 2013)